Calgary Real Estate Board | September 2019 Market Update

Calgary Real Estate Board | September 2019 Market Update


– Hey everyone, Richard Robbins here. Well the numbers are in for the Calgary Real Estate Board for the month of September. So here’s what I’m gonna do, I’m gonna show you what’s happened the whole year, in terms of sales, months of inventory. Then what I’m gonna do is I’m gonna compare September of ’19 to September of ’18, and you’re gonna see some positive movement there which is good. But then, what I’m gonna differ this time, is I’m also gonna show you what’s happened with the average price of all the different property types over the past 12 months. We can see what’s going on with all the different property types. In other words, detached, condos, townhouses, that sort of thing. So let’s have a look here. So again, you’ve seen this before. So what’s goin’ on? You can see January right through to September. September we have 1,371 sales. Now obviously, that is down 13.4% from August, and August was down, again, from July. So this year was a little lower than I thought it was going to be, quite honestly. And then look at your listings. Your listings drop. We’re at 6,889 listings at the end of September. And at the end of August, we’re just over 7,000. So our inventory dropped again. What does that mean? Okay, look at your months of inventory. See ‘member we started at 6.8 months of inventory. As I always say, balanced market, four to six months. Above six buyers market, below four you’re gonna be in more of a sellers market. Now, we moved into the spring, and this is very interesting and very normal. 6.8 months of inventory, we’ve dropped to six, dropped to five in March, 4.6 in April, and then down to 3.9 in May. The market was actually pretty strong here. Now remember, months of inventory does not reflect sales necessarily being up and down. What it reflects, is if we take the amount of sales, and of course, we divide that into the active listings, and it shows us how many months of inventory. So what sometimes can happen in a market, your sales might be down a little bit, and your months of inventory could be down as well. And that’s only because we have less active listings on the market. So strongest month was May. June 4.2. Summer, July and August were both 4.4. And then we went up to five, here in September. Days in market, you know we start at 72, we’re now at around 59. So it’s down pretty substantially. But look at this, if we compare, this is September here of 2018, opposed to say, 2019. You can see we were up. We had 1,268 sales, we went up to 1,371 in September this year. So our sales are up by 8.1%. So again, we’re moving the right way. Not where were four years ago, or five years ago. But, we’re moving the right way. What’s happened with our prices, year over year? Almost flat. $466,000 last September, and $461,000 this September. So let’s look at your months of inventory, and what does this graph, basically the last three years. So 2017, you’ll see here, is right going along, and it’s below the last two years. 2018, ‘member, stress test, you know it crept up a little bit up around here. In 2019, we started higher. The highest in the last three years. But the good news is we came down. And we’ve now gone below last year, and we stayed below last year, all through the summer and into the fall. So when I look at this, you can see we’re almost where we were, like two years ago. We’re well below we were, last year. We had 6.3 months of inventory here. And you can see, we’re down to five right here. We’re 4.7, two years ago. So again, what does all this mean? Your market is right now very balanced. Now I’m gonna show you average sale price, in just a minute, in many of the different property types. But again, in some property types you’re gonna see price increases just barely, in others you’re gonna see prices going down. Because right now you have more months of inventory, supply and demand, in say condo apartments, than you do detached. So let’s have a look at this. If you look here, here’s your detached. So if we compare price, it’s almost flat. We’re $539,000 in detached last September. We’re $542,000, so it is up slightly. Look at apartments though. We start at an average price of $301,000. What’s happened? We’re down to $283,000. Your condo apartments are down by 6%, okay. And then attached, we’re up slightly by 1%. And semi-detached, here you can see, we’re actually up by 5.1%. So very interesting what’s going on right now, in your marketplace. So I’d say overall, here’s what you have. You have very flat prices. You’re going to have some markets that are busier than others. In other words, inexpensive detached homes right now, you know maybe first time buyers, you’re probably gonna see that market a little busier. You get up into the more expensive detached homes, market’s gonna be a little bit slower. And then of course, condo apartments have been suffering for quite awhile. Now, why would they suffer, because in Toronto and Vancouver, condo apartments are doing great? It’s because of affordability. See in Calgary, what happens is a lot of people, especially first time buyers, they might be able to afford a detached home. And I think, it makes sense that if they could afford a detached home, instead of a condo apartment, if they’re gonna start a family, they’re probably gonna go in that direction. So that’s why what you’re seeing here, is you’re seeing months of inventories relatively high there, causing prices to go down. And this market is more in a balanced market. I suspect the rest of the year, that probably, October, November, December, just my prediction, that our sales are going to be higher than the were at the same point last year. They’re not gonna be where they were four or five years ago. But, they’re gonna be higher than where they were, say last year. So the market is moving the right direction. However saying that, it’s moving very, very slowly. Overall, what you’re sitting in right now, is a very balanced market. So what you gotta do is you gotta make sure right now, you’re pricing listings right, you’re gonna have to help buyers see why they should be buying right now. Because the pie from four years ago is now smaller, okay. Like four years ago, your pie was this big, and your pie is now down to this big. Which means we gotta, probably, work a little bit harder, if we wanna do the same, or more business. So I hope this was helpful. I look forward to talkin’ to ya next month. And at the end of the day, remember everybody, it’s a beautiful life, make it count.

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