6/06/19 O.C. Housing Market Update: Tustin Talk

6/06/19 O.C. Housing Market Update: Tustin Talk



hey it's Dean Odell with Seven Gables real estate in the O'Dell group and it is time for Tustin talks well the data for the first five months of the year is in so here's what I'm gonna do next clip you're gonna see is gonna be on the charts and that is going to be after I stay up tonight and study this data for you so the next time you see me I have a different shirt on and it'll be daylight out okay let's get started if you take a look at the listing inventory you will see that the inventory with the orange line is way up almost 7500 homes on the market now so if you follow the gap from the orange line and green line from the beginning of the year you'll see that there's been a narrowing at the beginning of the year we actually had a difference of 2,200 homes which means between now and then we've absorbed about 600 homes of inventory that rolled over now let's look at demand as we measure it by pending sales again the orange line is this year the Green Line is last year if you look demand is almost exactly what it was last year so when you look at the demand in the last two years it is down almost 20 percent from its peak but we still have the same amount of demand as last year so all this craziness that's in the news about people not buying homes is just not accurate now one thing we need to do is look at closed sales unfortunately we don't have a chart for closed sales but the statistics show that close sales are down about nine percent so what does that mean that means homes that are going into escrow more of them are falling out of escrow than previous years now we're gonna look at the expected marketing time year-over-year again represented by the orange line as you can see the expected marketing time has gone up we've got more selection for buyers to choose from the buyers think that the markets completely falling apart even though we just proved that the demand numbers are pretty much the same what does that mean for home appreciation rates well home appreciation rates are staying very stable we don't expect a lot of home apprec– in this year one of the other factors that's happened as interest rates have dropped almost a full percent since last year which is keeping the market at its level there's another an interesting chart to look at something we haven't had to deal with too much over the last few years these are homes that are going off the market year over year meaning these are homes that are not selling you can see the increase we're at a level that's closer to 900 now where when things were at its best they were closer to 600 so you have 50% more homes going off the market and not selling this brings us to my favorite chart which shows the demand and activity by price range so I think what's really important to realize is where is the demand and if you look at this chart you'll see that for instance under 750 is 55 percent of the demand or over 4 million is only one percent of the demand but that 1 percent of the demand is 6 percent of the inventory we're at the 55 percent demand level it's only 39 percent of the inventory so of course anytime you have more demand than you have inventory that's going to lean in favor of the sellers ok so what do we do whether we're a buyer or seller well let me explain that real quick if you're a seller right now and you're leaving the area stop messing around get your home priced right and get it sold there's no advantage of holding on to it I did an interesting comparison over a million 5 in the North Tustin market last week I was shocked to find out that out of 37 sales 18 of those sales occurred within the first 16 days on the market the other homes and of course they didn't have to reduce their price because they sold so quickly they were on the market 235 days now we're not gonna say that 50% of the market under price that are houses right I mean the buyers are educated they understand what a fair price is and they will step up and make offers because they want to take advantage of these long term interest rates because they know it's a good time to buy a house from cost of ownership standpoint that's it for today's Tustin talks if you guys need some help we've been around for a long time we know what's going on in this market this is my personal third time through a cycle my partner's fourth and we know what's happening here so give us a call and we'll help you out thanks for watching testing toxin we'll see you in two weeks hey guys who are you getting your real estate advice from do you know there's twenty three thousand agents in Orange County and 87% of them are gonna be out of the business within five years the Odell groups been around for nearly 40 years we are ranked number nine and transactions closed and we can give you the right advice to help you make good decisions so please click on our subscribe button here and start watching the videos and let us know if there's anything we do to help you

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